Transmissibility and temporal changes of 2009 pH1N1 pandemic during summer and fall/winter waves

Ying Hen Hsieh, Kuang Fu Cheng, Trong Neng Wu, Tsai Chung Li, Chiu Ying Chen, Jin Hua Chen, Mei Hui Lin

研究成果: 雜誌貢獻文章

9 引文 (Scopus)

摘要

Background: In order to compare the transmissibility of the 2009 pH1N1 pandemic during successive waves of infections in summer and fall/winter in the Northern Hemisphere, and to assess the temporal changes during the course of the outbreak in relation to the intervention measures implemented, we analyze the epidemiological patterns of the epidemic in Taiwan during July 2009-March 2010.Methods: We utilize the multi-phase Richards model to fit the weekly cumulative pH1N1 epidemiological data (numbers of confirmed cases and hospitalizations) as well as the daily number of classes suspended under a unique "325" partial school closing policy in Taiwan, in order to pinpoint the turning points of the summer and fall/winter waves, and to estimate the reproduction numbers R for each wave.Results: Our analysis indicates that the summer wave had slowed down by early September when schools reopened for fall. However, a second fall/winter wave began in late September, approximately 4 weeks after the school reopened, peaking at about 2-3 weeks after the start of the mass immunization campaign in November. R is estimated to be in the range of 1.04-1.27 for the first wave, and between 1.01-1.05 for the second wave.Conclusions: Transmissibility of the summer wave in Taiwan during July-early September, as measured by R, was lower than that of the earlier spring outbreak in North America and Europe, as well as that of the winter outbreak in Southern Hemisphere. Furthermore, transmissibility during fall/winter in Taiwan was noticeably lower than that of the summer, which is attributable to population-level immunity acquired from the earlier summer wave and also to the intervention measures that were implemented prior to and during the fall/winter wave.

原文英語
文章編號332
期刊BMC Infectious Diseases
11
DOIs
出版狀態已發佈 - 十二月 2 2011
對外發佈Yes

指紋

Pandemics
Taiwan
Disease Outbreaks
Mass Vaccination
Adaptive Immunity
North America
Reproduction
Hospitalization
Infection
Population

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Infectious Diseases

引用此文

Transmissibility and temporal changes of 2009 pH1N1 pandemic during summer and fall/winter waves. / Hsieh, Ying Hen; Cheng, Kuang Fu; Wu, Trong Neng; Li, Tsai Chung; Chen, Chiu Ying; Chen, Jin Hua; Lin, Mei Hui.

於: BMC Infectious Diseases, 卷 11, 332, 02.12.2011.

研究成果: 雜誌貢獻文章

Hsieh, Ying Hen ; Cheng, Kuang Fu ; Wu, Trong Neng ; Li, Tsai Chung ; Chen, Chiu Ying ; Chen, Jin Hua ; Lin, Mei Hui. / Transmissibility and temporal changes of 2009 pH1N1 pandemic during summer and fall/winter waves. 於: BMC Infectious Diseases. 2011 ; 卷 11.
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title = "Transmissibility and temporal changes of 2009 pH1N1 pandemic during summer and fall/winter waves",
abstract = "Background: In order to compare the transmissibility of the 2009 pH1N1 pandemic during successive waves of infections in summer and fall/winter in the Northern Hemisphere, and to assess the temporal changes during the course of the outbreak in relation to the intervention measures implemented, we analyze the epidemiological patterns of the epidemic in Taiwan during July 2009-March 2010.Methods: We utilize the multi-phase Richards model to fit the weekly cumulative pH1N1 epidemiological data (numbers of confirmed cases and hospitalizations) as well as the daily number of classes suspended under a unique {"}325{"} partial school closing policy in Taiwan, in order to pinpoint the turning points of the summer and fall/winter waves, and to estimate the reproduction numbers R for each wave.Results: Our analysis indicates that the summer wave had slowed down by early September when schools reopened for fall. However, a second fall/winter wave began in late September, approximately 4 weeks after the school reopened, peaking at about 2-3 weeks after the start of the mass immunization campaign in November. R is estimated to be in the range of 1.04-1.27 for the first wave, and between 1.01-1.05 for the second wave.Conclusions: Transmissibility of the summer wave in Taiwan during July-early September, as measured by R, was lower than that of the earlier spring outbreak in North America and Europe, as well as that of the winter outbreak in Southern Hemisphere. Furthermore, transmissibility during fall/winter in Taiwan was noticeably lower than that of the summer, which is attributable to population-level immunity acquired from the earlier summer wave and also to the intervention measures that were implemented prior to and during the fall/winter wave.",
author = "Hsieh, {Ying Hen} and Cheng, {Kuang Fu} and Wu, {Trong Neng} and Li, {Tsai Chung} and Chen, {Chiu Ying} and Chen, {Jin Hua} and Lin, {Mei Hui}",
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AU - Chen, Chiu Ying

AU - Chen, Jin Hua

AU - Lin, Mei Hui

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N2 - Background: In order to compare the transmissibility of the 2009 pH1N1 pandemic during successive waves of infections in summer and fall/winter in the Northern Hemisphere, and to assess the temporal changes during the course of the outbreak in relation to the intervention measures implemented, we analyze the epidemiological patterns of the epidemic in Taiwan during July 2009-March 2010.Methods: We utilize the multi-phase Richards model to fit the weekly cumulative pH1N1 epidemiological data (numbers of confirmed cases and hospitalizations) as well as the daily number of classes suspended under a unique "325" partial school closing policy in Taiwan, in order to pinpoint the turning points of the summer and fall/winter waves, and to estimate the reproduction numbers R for each wave.Results: Our analysis indicates that the summer wave had slowed down by early September when schools reopened for fall. However, a second fall/winter wave began in late September, approximately 4 weeks after the school reopened, peaking at about 2-3 weeks after the start of the mass immunization campaign in November. R is estimated to be in the range of 1.04-1.27 for the first wave, and between 1.01-1.05 for the second wave.Conclusions: Transmissibility of the summer wave in Taiwan during July-early September, as measured by R, was lower than that of the earlier spring outbreak in North America and Europe, as well as that of the winter outbreak in Southern Hemisphere. Furthermore, transmissibility during fall/winter in Taiwan was noticeably lower than that of the summer, which is attributable to population-level immunity acquired from the earlier summer wave and also to the intervention measures that were implemented prior to and during the fall/winter wave.

AB - Background: In order to compare the transmissibility of the 2009 pH1N1 pandemic during successive waves of infections in summer and fall/winter in the Northern Hemisphere, and to assess the temporal changes during the course of the outbreak in relation to the intervention measures implemented, we analyze the epidemiological patterns of the epidemic in Taiwan during July 2009-March 2010.Methods: We utilize the multi-phase Richards model to fit the weekly cumulative pH1N1 epidemiological data (numbers of confirmed cases and hospitalizations) as well as the daily number of classes suspended under a unique "325" partial school closing policy in Taiwan, in order to pinpoint the turning points of the summer and fall/winter waves, and to estimate the reproduction numbers R for each wave.Results: Our analysis indicates that the summer wave had slowed down by early September when schools reopened for fall. However, a second fall/winter wave began in late September, approximately 4 weeks after the school reopened, peaking at about 2-3 weeks after the start of the mass immunization campaign in November. R is estimated to be in the range of 1.04-1.27 for the first wave, and between 1.01-1.05 for the second wave.Conclusions: Transmissibility of the summer wave in Taiwan during July-early September, as measured by R, was lower than that of the earlier spring outbreak in North America and Europe, as well as that of the winter outbreak in Southern Hemisphere. Furthermore, transmissibility during fall/winter in Taiwan was noticeably lower than that of the summer, which is attributable to population-level immunity acquired from the earlier summer wave and also to the intervention measures that were implemented prior to and during the fall/winter wave.

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