補貼下游加工業是為加快糧食“去庫存”及促進糧食產業健康發展，但糧油加工業的產能過剩會使補貼政策處境尷尬，易逆向加劇行業產能過剩、阻礙糧食產業持續發展。本文將糧油加工上市企業分為初、深加工兩種類型，採用生產函數法對糧油加工業整體及其細分類別產能利用情況進行估算分析，並實證研究了行業產能過剩的可能性成因。結果表明：糧油初、深加工企業均有不同程度的產能過剩，具有較高資本貢獻率的初加工企業同時產能過剩程度較強。深加工企業產能利用水準雖較高，但產品並無明顯競爭力，產能依然持續過剩。對糧油加工業而言，政府補貼會正向促進其產能過剩形成，且深加工領域更為明顯。具有較高資本密集度的企業更易出現投資過剩，較低的投資效率會使產能閒置，同時補貼下企業資本密集度的提高會加劇行業產能過剩。The purpose of subsidizing the downstream processing industry is to speed up the destocking of the grain and promote the healthy development of grain industry. But the overcapacity of the grain and oil processing industry will make the subsidy policy in an awkward position. In this paper, listed grain and oil processing enterprises are divided into two types: primary and deep processing, and the production function method is used to estimate and analyze the overall utilization of grain and oil processing industry and its sub-categories. The results show that the grain and oil primary and deep processing enterprises have different degrees of excess capacity. The primary processing enterprises with higher capital contributions also have a higher degree of overcapacity. Although the capacity utilization level of deep processing enterprises is relatively high, it's products are not obviously competitive and capacity continues to be excessive. For the grain and oil processing industry, government subsidies will positively promote the formation of its excess capacity. This phenomenon is more obvious in the field of deep processing. Enterprises with higher capital intensity are more prone to over-investment and result in overcapacity easily. Besides, the increased capital intensity of subsidized enterprises will exacerbate industrial overcapacity.