Time-varying predictors for clinical surveillance of small hepatocellular carcinoma

Chao Sheng Liao, Kuo Ching Yang, Ming Fang Yen, Tony Hsiu Hsi Chen

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

5 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

PURPOSE: Prognosis of small hepatocellular carcinoma depends on a constellation of time-varying predictors in association with liver function. We aimed to elucidate the impact of these time-dependent predictors on survival. PATIENTS AND METHODS: A total of 108 patients with hepatocellular carcinoma smaller than 5 cm in diameter were recruited. Series of laboratory data and clinical assessments were retrieved from medical records. The time-dependent scoring system for the prediction of death was developed in accordance with a time-dependent Cox regression model. RESULTS: Time trends for biologic predictors parallel cumulative survival of small hepatocellular carcinoma cases. Higher serum α-fetoprotein level was identified as the most significant time-dependent predictor. Other significant predictors included aspartate transaminase, bilirubin, alkaline phosphatase, and albumin levels and prothrombin time. Time-dependent surveillance scoring system shows the cut-off points of scores at 6 months, 1 year, 2 years, and 3 years were 42, 21, 19, and 31, respectively; the estimates of sensitivity, 100%, 100%, 100%, and 87.5%, respectively; and the estimates of specificity, 91.26%, 67.02%, 60.27%, and 78.26%, respectively. Predictive validity for this time-dependent Cox regression model, particularly within 1-year of follow-up, is good. DISCUSSION: The dynamic relationships between time-dependent predictors and risk of death were illustrated. A time-dependent predictive scoring system using these dynamic relationships was developed for real-time surveillance.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)226-233
Number of pages8
JournalCancer Journal
Volume11
Issue number3
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - May 2005
Externally publishedYes

Fingerprint

Hepatocellular Carcinoma
Proportional Hazards Models
Fetal Proteins
Survival
Prothrombin Time
Aspartate Aminotransferases
Bilirubin
Medical Records
Alkaline Phosphatase
Albumins
Liver
Serum

Keywords

  • Clinical surveillance
  • Small hepatocellular carcinoma
  • Time-dependent predictor

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Cancer Research
  • Oncology

Cite this

Time-varying predictors for clinical surveillance of small hepatocellular carcinoma. / Liao, Chao Sheng; Yang, Kuo Ching; Yen, Ming Fang; Chen, Tony Hsiu Hsi.

In: Cancer Journal, Vol. 11, No. 3, 05.2005, p. 226-233.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Liao, Chao Sheng ; Yang, Kuo Ching ; Yen, Ming Fang ; Chen, Tony Hsiu Hsi. / Time-varying predictors for clinical surveillance of small hepatocellular carcinoma. In: Cancer Journal. 2005 ; Vol. 11, No. 3. pp. 226-233.
@article{5f7d9dc6e5d1415d8f437a9d6a7e15e1,
title = "Time-varying predictors for clinical surveillance of small hepatocellular carcinoma",
abstract = "PURPOSE: Prognosis of small hepatocellular carcinoma depends on a constellation of time-varying predictors in association with liver function. We aimed to elucidate the impact of these time-dependent predictors on survival. PATIENTS AND METHODS: A total of 108 patients with hepatocellular carcinoma smaller than 5 cm in diameter were recruited. Series of laboratory data and clinical assessments were retrieved from medical records. The time-dependent scoring system for the prediction of death was developed in accordance with a time-dependent Cox regression model. RESULTS: Time trends for biologic predictors parallel cumulative survival of small hepatocellular carcinoma cases. Higher serum α-fetoprotein level was identified as the most significant time-dependent predictor. Other significant predictors included aspartate transaminase, bilirubin, alkaline phosphatase, and albumin levels and prothrombin time. Time-dependent surveillance scoring system shows the cut-off points of scores at 6 months, 1 year, 2 years, and 3 years were 42, 21, 19, and 31, respectively; the estimates of sensitivity, 100{\%}, 100{\%}, 100{\%}, and 87.5{\%}, respectively; and the estimates of specificity, 91.26{\%}, 67.02{\%}, 60.27{\%}, and 78.26{\%}, respectively. Predictive validity for this time-dependent Cox regression model, particularly within 1-year of follow-up, is good. DISCUSSION: The dynamic relationships between time-dependent predictors and risk of death were illustrated. A time-dependent predictive scoring system using these dynamic relationships was developed for real-time surveillance.",
keywords = "Clinical surveillance, Small hepatocellular carcinoma, Time-dependent predictor",
author = "Liao, {Chao Sheng} and Yang, {Kuo Ching} and Yen, {Ming Fang} and Chen, {Tony Hsiu Hsi}",
year = "2005",
month = "5",
doi = "10.1097/00130404-200505000-00009",
language = "English",
volume = "11",
pages = "226--233",
journal = "Cancer journal (Sudbury, Mass.)",
issn = "1528-9117",
publisher = "Lippincott Williams and Wilkins",
number = "3",

}

TY - JOUR

T1 - Time-varying predictors for clinical surveillance of small hepatocellular carcinoma

AU - Liao, Chao Sheng

AU - Yang, Kuo Ching

AU - Yen, Ming Fang

AU - Chen, Tony Hsiu Hsi

PY - 2005/5

Y1 - 2005/5

N2 - PURPOSE: Prognosis of small hepatocellular carcinoma depends on a constellation of time-varying predictors in association with liver function. We aimed to elucidate the impact of these time-dependent predictors on survival. PATIENTS AND METHODS: A total of 108 patients with hepatocellular carcinoma smaller than 5 cm in diameter were recruited. Series of laboratory data and clinical assessments were retrieved from medical records. The time-dependent scoring system for the prediction of death was developed in accordance with a time-dependent Cox regression model. RESULTS: Time trends for biologic predictors parallel cumulative survival of small hepatocellular carcinoma cases. Higher serum α-fetoprotein level was identified as the most significant time-dependent predictor. Other significant predictors included aspartate transaminase, bilirubin, alkaline phosphatase, and albumin levels and prothrombin time. Time-dependent surveillance scoring system shows the cut-off points of scores at 6 months, 1 year, 2 years, and 3 years were 42, 21, 19, and 31, respectively; the estimates of sensitivity, 100%, 100%, 100%, and 87.5%, respectively; and the estimates of specificity, 91.26%, 67.02%, 60.27%, and 78.26%, respectively. Predictive validity for this time-dependent Cox regression model, particularly within 1-year of follow-up, is good. DISCUSSION: The dynamic relationships between time-dependent predictors and risk of death were illustrated. A time-dependent predictive scoring system using these dynamic relationships was developed for real-time surveillance.

AB - PURPOSE: Prognosis of small hepatocellular carcinoma depends on a constellation of time-varying predictors in association with liver function. We aimed to elucidate the impact of these time-dependent predictors on survival. PATIENTS AND METHODS: A total of 108 patients with hepatocellular carcinoma smaller than 5 cm in diameter were recruited. Series of laboratory data and clinical assessments were retrieved from medical records. The time-dependent scoring system for the prediction of death was developed in accordance with a time-dependent Cox regression model. RESULTS: Time trends for biologic predictors parallel cumulative survival of small hepatocellular carcinoma cases. Higher serum α-fetoprotein level was identified as the most significant time-dependent predictor. Other significant predictors included aspartate transaminase, bilirubin, alkaline phosphatase, and albumin levels and prothrombin time. Time-dependent surveillance scoring system shows the cut-off points of scores at 6 months, 1 year, 2 years, and 3 years were 42, 21, 19, and 31, respectively; the estimates of sensitivity, 100%, 100%, 100%, and 87.5%, respectively; and the estimates of specificity, 91.26%, 67.02%, 60.27%, and 78.26%, respectively. Predictive validity for this time-dependent Cox regression model, particularly within 1-year of follow-up, is good. DISCUSSION: The dynamic relationships between time-dependent predictors and risk of death were illustrated. A time-dependent predictive scoring system using these dynamic relationships was developed for real-time surveillance.

KW - Clinical surveillance

KW - Small hepatocellular carcinoma

KW - Time-dependent predictor

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=27144439353&partnerID=8YFLogxK

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=27144439353&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1097/00130404-200505000-00009

DO - 10.1097/00130404-200505000-00009

M3 - Article

VL - 11

SP - 226

EP - 233

JO - Cancer journal (Sudbury, Mass.)

JF - Cancer journal (Sudbury, Mass.)

SN - 1528-9117

IS - 3

ER -