Surveillance of influenza from household to community in Taiwan

Chen Yang Hsu, Amy Ming Fang Yen, Li Sheng Chen, Hsiu Hsi Chen

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Abstract

Background: We propose a chain binomial model to elucidate the transmission modes of influenza within households and with which to further evaluate the spread of influenza in a community. Methods: Data on the surveillance of influenza in Taiwan were collected from July 2001 to March 2002. A series of chain binomial modelswere fitted to estimate the escape probability. This parameter together with accumulated cases of the first episode were further applied to derive the transmission probability, the contact rate and the recovery rate, yielding an estimate of the basic reproductive number and providing a simulation approach with which to assess the spread of influenza in the community. Results: Of the 6 391 614 cases identified during the study period, 4 451 046 were from 3 654 320 households consisting of two to five people, with at least one case used to estimate the escape probabilities within households. The escape probability within households was 92.4%, which, in turn, led to a contact rate estimate of 7.7 per day. The transmission probability was estimated as 8.3%. These three parameters yielded 2.56 as the basic reproductive number. Conclusions: The proposed method provides a means for using household data to evaluate the transmissibility of influenza within a community.

Original languageEnglish
Article numbertru023
Pages (from-to)213-220
Number of pages8
JournalTransactions of the Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene
Volume108
Issue number4
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2014

Fingerprint

Taiwan
Human Influenza
Statistical Models

Keywords

  • Basic reproductive number
  • Chain binomial model
  • Household
  • Influenza
  • SIR model
  • Taiwan

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Parasitology
  • Infectious Diseases
  • Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health

Cite this

Surveillance of influenza from household to community in Taiwan. / Hsu, Chen Yang; Yen, Amy Ming Fang; Chen, Li Sheng; Chen, Hsiu Hsi.

In: Transactions of the Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene, Vol. 108, No. 4, tru023, 2014, p. 213-220.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

@article{e014e3fa022c4cbb9cd2a3ab241dafe0,
title = "Surveillance of influenza from household to community in Taiwan",
abstract = "Background: We propose a chain binomial model to elucidate the transmission modes of influenza within households and with which to further evaluate the spread of influenza in a community. Methods: Data on the surveillance of influenza in Taiwan were collected from July 2001 to March 2002. A series of chain binomial modelswere fitted to estimate the escape probability. This parameter together with accumulated cases of the first episode were further applied to derive the transmission probability, the contact rate and the recovery rate, yielding an estimate of the basic reproductive number and providing a simulation approach with which to assess the spread of influenza in the community. Results: Of the 6 391 614 cases identified during the study period, 4 451 046 were from 3 654 320 households consisting of two to five people, with at least one case used to estimate the escape probabilities within households. The escape probability within households was 92.4{\%}, which, in turn, led to a contact rate estimate of 7.7 per day. The transmission probability was estimated as 8.3{\%}. These three parameters yielded 2.56 as the basic reproductive number. Conclusions: The proposed method provides a means for using household data to evaluate the transmissibility of influenza within a community.",
keywords = "Basic reproductive number, Chain binomial model, Household, Influenza, SIR model, Taiwan",
author = "Hsu, {Chen Yang} and Yen, {Amy Ming Fang} and Chen, {Li Sheng} and Chen, {Hsiu Hsi}",
year = "2014",
doi = "10.1093/trstmh/tru023",
language = "English",
volume = "108",
pages = "213--220",
journal = "Transactions of the Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene",
issn = "0035-9203",
publisher = "Elsevier",
number = "4",

}

TY - JOUR

T1 - Surveillance of influenza from household to community in Taiwan

AU - Hsu, Chen Yang

AU - Yen, Amy Ming Fang

AU - Chen, Li Sheng

AU - Chen, Hsiu Hsi

PY - 2014

Y1 - 2014

N2 - Background: We propose a chain binomial model to elucidate the transmission modes of influenza within households and with which to further evaluate the spread of influenza in a community. Methods: Data on the surveillance of influenza in Taiwan were collected from July 2001 to March 2002. A series of chain binomial modelswere fitted to estimate the escape probability. This parameter together with accumulated cases of the first episode were further applied to derive the transmission probability, the contact rate and the recovery rate, yielding an estimate of the basic reproductive number and providing a simulation approach with which to assess the spread of influenza in the community. Results: Of the 6 391 614 cases identified during the study period, 4 451 046 were from 3 654 320 households consisting of two to five people, with at least one case used to estimate the escape probabilities within households. The escape probability within households was 92.4%, which, in turn, led to a contact rate estimate of 7.7 per day. The transmission probability was estimated as 8.3%. These three parameters yielded 2.56 as the basic reproductive number. Conclusions: The proposed method provides a means for using household data to evaluate the transmissibility of influenza within a community.

AB - Background: We propose a chain binomial model to elucidate the transmission modes of influenza within households and with which to further evaluate the spread of influenza in a community. Methods: Data on the surveillance of influenza in Taiwan were collected from July 2001 to March 2002. A series of chain binomial modelswere fitted to estimate the escape probability. This parameter together with accumulated cases of the first episode were further applied to derive the transmission probability, the contact rate and the recovery rate, yielding an estimate of the basic reproductive number and providing a simulation approach with which to assess the spread of influenza in the community. Results: Of the 6 391 614 cases identified during the study period, 4 451 046 were from 3 654 320 households consisting of two to five people, with at least one case used to estimate the escape probabilities within households. The escape probability within households was 92.4%, which, in turn, led to a contact rate estimate of 7.7 per day. The transmission probability was estimated as 8.3%. These three parameters yielded 2.56 as the basic reproductive number. Conclusions: The proposed method provides a means for using household data to evaluate the transmissibility of influenza within a community.

KW - Basic reproductive number

KW - Chain binomial model

KW - Household

KW - Influenza

KW - SIR model

KW - Taiwan

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=84896134136&partnerID=8YFLogxK

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=84896134136&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1093/trstmh/tru023

DO - 10.1093/trstmh/tru023

M3 - Article

C2 - 24627426

AN - SCOPUS:84896134136

VL - 108

SP - 213

EP - 220

JO - Transactions of the Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene

JF - Transactions of the Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene

SN - 0035-9203

IS - 4

M1 - tru023

ER -