Predicting the risk for colorectal cancer with personal characteristics and fecal immunochemical test

Wen Li, Li Zhong Zhao, Dong Wang Ma, De Zheng Wang, Lei Shi, Hong Lei Wang, Mo Dong, Shu Yi Zhang, Lei Cao, Wei Hua Zhang, Xi Peng Zhang, Qing Huai Zhang, Lin Yu, Hai Qin, Xi Mo Wang, Sam Li Sheng Chen

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

3 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

We aimed to predict colorectal cancer (CRC) based on the demographic features and clinical correlates of personal symptoms and signs from Tianjin community-based CRC screening data.A total of 891,199 residents who were aged 60 to 74 and were screened in 2012 were enrolled. The Lasso logistic regression model was used to identify the predictors for CRC. Predictive validity was assessed by the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. Bootstrapping method was also performed to validate this prediction model.CRC was best predicted by a model that included age, sex, education level, occupations, diarrhea, constipation, colon mucosa and bleeding, gallbladder disease, a stressful life event, family history of CRC, and a positive fecal immunochemical test (FIT). The area under curve (AUC) for the questionnaire with a FIT was 84% (95% CI: 82%-86%), followed by 76% (95% CI: 74%-79%) for a FIT alone, and 73% (95% CI: 71%-76%) for the questionnaire alone. With 500 bootstrap replications, the estimated optimism (<0.005) shows good discrimination in validation of prediction model.A risk prediction model for CRC based on a series of symptoms and signs related to enteric diseases in combination with a FIT was developed from first round of screening. The results of the current study are useful for increasing the awareness of high-risk subjects and for individual-risk-guided invitations or strategies to achieve mass screening for CRC.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)e0529
JournalMedicine
Volume97
Issue number18
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - May 1 2018

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Colorectal Neoplasms
Signs and Symptoms
Logistic Models
Gallbladder Diseases
Mass Screening
Sex Education
Constipation
Early Detection of Cancer
Occupations
ROC Curve
Area Under Curve
Diarrhea
Colon
Mucous Membrane
Demography
Hemorrhage

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Medicine(all)

Cite this

Predicting the risk for colorectal cancer with personal characteristics and fecal immunochemical test. / Li, Wen; Zhao, Li Zhong; Ma, Dong Wang; Wang, De Zheng; Shi, Lei; Wang, Hong Lei; Dong, Mo; Zhang, Shu Yi; Cao, Lei; Zhang, Wei Hua; Zhang, Xi Peng; Zhang, Qing Huai; Yu, Lin; Qin, Hai; Wang, Xi Mo; Chen, Sam Li Sheng.

In: Medicine, Vol. 97, No. 18, 01.05.2018, p. e0529.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Li, W, Zhao, LZ, Ma, DW, Wang, DZ, Shi, L, Wang, HL, Dong, M, Zhang, SY, Cao, L, Zhang, WH, Zhang, XP, Zhang, QH, Yu, L, Qin, H, Wang, XM & Chen, SLS 2018, 'Predicting the risk for colorectal cancer with personal characteristics and fecal immunochemical test', Medicine, vol. 97, no. 18, pp. e0529. https://doi.org/10.1097/MD.0000000000010529
Li, Wen ; Zhao, Li Zhong ; Ma, Dong Wang ; Wang, De Zheng ; Shi, Lei ; Wang, Hong Lei ; Dong, Mo ; Zhang, Shu Yi ; Cao, Lei ; Zhang, Wei Hua ; Zhang, Xi Peng ; Zhang, Qing Huai ; Yu, Lin ; Qin, Hai ; Wang, Xi Mo ; Chen, Sam Li Sheng. / Predicting the risk for colorectal cancer with personal characteristics and fecal immunochemical test. In: Medicine. 2018 ; Vol. 97, No. 18. pp. e0529.
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AU - Wang, Xi Mo

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