Potential impacts of climate change on the winter distribution of Afro-Palaearctic migrant passerines

Morgane Barbet-Massin, Bruno A. Walther, Wilfried Thuiller, Carsten Rahbek, Frédéric Jiguet

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

62 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

We modelled the present and future sub-Saharan winter distributions of 64 trans-Saharan migrant passerines to predict the potential impacts of climate change. These predictions used the recent ensemble modelling developments and the latest IPCC climatic simulations to account for possible methodological uncertainties. Results suggest that 37 species would face a range reduction by 2100 (16 of these by more than 50%); however, the median range size variation is -13 per cent (from -97 to +980%) under a full dispersal hypothesis. Range centroids were predicted to shift by 500±373 km. Predicted changes in range size and location were spatially structured, with species that winter in southern and eastern Africa facing larger range contractions and shifts. Predicted changes in regional species richness for these long-distance migrants are increases just south of the Sahara and on the Arabian Peninsula and major decreases in southern and eastern Africa.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)248-251
Number of pages4
JournalBiology Letters
Volume5
Issue number2
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Apr 23 2009
Externally publishedYes

Fingerprint

Southern Africa
Eastern Africa
Climate Change
climate change
Northern Africa
winter
Uncertainty
uncertainty
species diversity
prediction

Keywords

  • Africa
  • Birds
  • Climate change
  • Climate suitability model
  • Ensemble forecast
  • Species' range shift

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Agricultural and Biological Sciences(all)
  • Agricultural and Biological Sciences (miscellaneous)

Cite this

Potential impacts of climate change on the winter distribution of Afro-Palaearctic migrant passerines. / Barbet-Massin, Morgane; Walther, Bruno A.; Thuiller, Wilfried; Rahbek, Carsten; Jiguet, Frédéric.

In: Biology Letters, Vol. 5, No. 2, 23.04.2009, p. 248-251.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Barbet-Massin, M, Walther, BA, Thuiller, W, Rahbek, C & Jiguet, F 2009, 'Potential impacts of climate change on the winter distribution of Afro-Palaearctic migrant passerines', Biology Letters, vol. 5, no. 2, pp. 248-251. https://doi.org/10.1098/rsbl.2008.0715
Barbet-Massin, Morgane ; Walther, Bruno A. ; Thuiller, Wilfried ; Rahbek, Carsten ; Jiguet, Frédéric. / Potential impacts of climate change on the winter distribution of Afro-Palaearctic migrant passerines. In: Biology Letters. 2009 ; Vol. 5, No. 2. pp. 248-251.
@article{77e8ffe826694678bd0b3763a0e0f876,
title = "Potential impacts of climate change on the winter distribution of Afro-Palaearctic migrant passerines",
abstract = "We modelled the present and future sub-Saharan winter distributions of 64 trans-Saharan migrant passerines to predict the potential impacts of climate change. These predictions used the recent ensemble modelling developments and the latest IPCC climatic simulations to account for possible methodological uncertainties. Results suggest that 37 species would face a range reduction by 2100 (16 of these by more than 50{\%}); however, the median range size variation is -13 per cent (from -97 to +980{\%}) under a full dispersal hypothesis. Range centroids were predicted to shift by 500±373 km. Predicted changes in range size and location were spatially structured, with species that winter in southern and eastern Africa facing larger range contractions and shifts. Predicted changes in regional species richness for these long-distance migrants are increases just south of the Sahara and on the Arabian Peninsula and major decreases in southern and eastern Africa.",
keywords = "Africa, Birds, Climate change, Climate suitability model, Ensemble forecast, Species' range shift",
author = "Morgane Barbet-Massin and Walther, {Bruno A.} and Wilfried Thuiller and Carsten Rahbek and Fr{\'e}d{\'e}ric Jiguet",
year = "2009",
month = "4",
day = "23",
doi = "10.1098/rsbl.2008.0715",
language = "English",
volume = "5",
pages = "248--251",
journal = "Biology Letters",
issn = "1744-9561",
publisher = "Royal Society of London",
number = "2",

}

TY - JOUR

T1 - Potential impacts of climate change on the winter distribution of Afro-Palaearctic migrant passerines

AU - Barbet-Massin, Morgane

AU - Walther, Bruno A.

AU - Thuiller, Wilfried

AU - Rahbek, Carsten

AU - Jiguet, Frédéric

PY - 2009/4/23

Y1 - 2009/4/23

N2 - We modelled the present and future sub-Saharan winter distributions of 64 trans-Saharan migrant passerines to predict the potential impacts of climate change. These predictions used the recent ensemble modelling developments and the latest IPCC climatic simulations to account for possible methodological uncertainties. Results suggest that 37 species would face a range reduction by 2100 (16 of these by more than 50%); however, the median range size variation is -13 per cent (from -97 to +980%) under a full dispersal hypothesis. Range centroids were predicted to shift by 500±373 km. Predicted changes in range size and location were spatially structured, with species that winter in southern and eastern Africa facing larger range contractions and shifts. Predicted changes in regional species richness for these long-distance migrants are increases just south of the Sahara and on the Arabian Peninsula and major decreases in southern and eastern Africa.

AB - We modelled the present and future sub-Saharan winter distributions of 64 trans-Saharan migrant passerines to predict the potential impacts of climate change. These predictions used the recent ensemble modelling developments and the latest IPCC climatic simulations to account for possible methodological uncertainties. Results suggest that 37 species would face a range reduction by 2100 (16 of these by more than 50%); however, the median range size variation is -13 per cent (from -97 to +980%) under a full dispersal hypothesis. Range centroids were predicted to shift by 500±373 km. Predicted changes in range size and location were spatially structured, with species that winter in southern and eastern Africa facing larger range contractions and shifts. Predicted changes in regional species richness for these long-distance migrants are increases just south of the Sahara and on the Arabian Peninsula and major decreases in southern and eastern Africa.

KW - Africa

KW - Birds

KW - Climate change

KW - Climate suitability model

KW - Ensemble forecast

KW - Species' range shift

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=65349138205&partnerID=8YFLogxK

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=65349138205&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1098/rsbl.2008.0715

DO - 10.1098/rsbl.2008.0715

M3 - Article

VL - 5

SP - 248

EP - 251

JO - Biology Letters

JF - Biology Letters

SN - 1744-9561

IS - 2

ER -