Personalized risk assessment for dynamic transition of gastric neoplasms

Jean Ching Yuan Fann, Tsung Hsien Chiang, Amy Ming Fang Yen, Yi Chia Lee, Ming Shiang Wu, Hsiu Hsi Chen

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Abstract

BACKGROUND: To develop an individually-tailored dynamic risk assessment model following a multistep, multifactorial process of the Correa's gastric cancer model. METHODS: First, we estimated the state-to-state transition rates following Correa's five-step carcinogenic model and assessed the effect of risk factors, including Helicobacter pylori infection, history of upper gastrointestinal disease, lifestyle, and dietary habits, on the step-by-step transition rates using data from a high-risk population in Matsu Islands, Taiwan. Second, we incorporated information on the gastric cancer carcinogenesis affected by genomic risk factors (including inherited susceptibility and irreversible genomic changes) based on literature to generate a genetic and epigenetic risk assessment model by using a simulated cohort identical to the Matsu population. The combination of conventional and genomic risk factors enables us to develop the personalized transition risk scores and composite scores. RESULTS: The state-by-state transition rates per year were 0.0053, 0.7523, 0.1750, and 0.0121 per year from normal mucosa to chronic active gastritis, chronic active gastritis to atrophic gastritis, atrophic gastritis to intestinal metaplasia, and intestinal metaplasia to gastric cancer, respectively. Compared with the median risk group, the most risky decile had a 5.22-fold risk of developing gastric cancer, and the least risky decile around one-twelfth of the risk. The median 10-year risk for gastric cancer incidence was 0.77%. The median lifetime risk for gastric cancer incidence was 5.43%. By decile, the 10-year risk ranged from 0.06 to 4.04% and the lifetime risk ranged from 0.42 to 21.04%. CONCLUSIONS: We demonstrate how to develop a personalized dynamic risk assessment model with the underpinning of Correa's cascade to stratify the population according to their risk for progression to gastric cancer. Such a risk assessment model not only facilitates the development of an individually-tailored preventive strategy with treatment for H. pylori infection and endoscopic screening but also provides short-term and long-term indicators to evaluate the program effectiveness.

Original languageEnglish
Number of pages1
JournalJournal of Biomedical Science
Volume25
Issue number1
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Nov 19 2018

Fingerprint

Risk assessment
Stomach Neoplasms
Atrophic Gastritis
Metaplasia
Helicobacter Infections
Gastritis
Helicobacter pylori
Population
Gastrointestinal Diseases
Incidence
Program Evaluation
Feeding Behavior
Taiwan
Islands
Epigenomics
Life Style
Carcinogenesis
Mucous Membrane
Screening

Keywords

  • Endoscopy
  • Gastric cancer
  • Helicobacter pylori
  • Prevention

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Endocrinology, Diabetes and Metabolism
  • Molecular Biology
  • Clinical Biochemistry
  • Cell Biology
  • Biochemistry, medical
  • Pharmacology (medical)

Cite this

Personalized risk assessment for dynamic transition of gastric neoplasms. / Fann, Jean Ching Yuan; Chiang, Tsung Hsien; Yen, Amy Ming Fang; Lee, Yi Chia; Wu, Ming Shiang; Chen, Hsiu Hsi.

In: Journal of Biomedical Science, Vol. 25, No. 1, 19.11.2018.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Fann, Jean Ching Yuan ; Chiang, Tsung Hsien ; Yen, Amy Ming Fang ; Lee, Yi Chia ; Wu, Ming Shiang ; Chen, Hsiu Hsi. / Personalized risk assessment for dynamic transition of gastric neoplasms. In: Journal of Biomedical Science. 2018 ; Vol. 25, No. 1.
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abstract = "BACKGROUND: To develop an individually-tailored dynamic risk assessment model following a multistep, multifactorial process of the Correa's gastric cancer model. METHODS: First, we estimated the state-to-state transition rates following Correa's five-step carcinogenic model and assessed the effect of risk factors, including Helicobacter pylori infection, history of upper gastrointestinal disease, lifestyle, and dietary habits, on the step-by-step transition rates using data from a high-risk population in Matsu Islands, Taiwan. Second, we incorporated information on the gastric cancer carcinogenesis affected by genomic risk factors (including inherited susceptibility and irreversible genomic changes) based on literature to generate a genetic and epigenetic risk assessment model by using a simulated cohort identical to the Matsu population. The combination of conventional and genomic risk factors enables us to develop the personalized transition risk scores and composite scores. RESULTS: The state-by-state transition rates per year were 0.0053, 0.7523, 0.1750, and 0.0121 per year from normal mucosa to chronic active gastritis, chronic active gastritis to atrophic gastritis, atrophic gastritis to intestinal metaplasia, and intestinal metaplasia to gastric cancer, respectively. Compared with the median risk group, the most risky decile had a 5.22-fold risk of developing gastric cancer, and the least risky decile around one-twelfth of the risk. The median 10-year risk for gastric cancer incidence was 0.77{\%}. The median lifetime risk for gastric cancer incidence was 5.43{\%}. By decile, the 10-year risk ranged from 0.06 to 4.04{\%} and the lifetime risk ranged from 0.42 to 21.04{\%}. CONCLUSIONS: We demonstrate how to develop a personalized dynamic risk assessment model with the underpinning of Correa's cascade to stratify the population according to their risk for progression to gastric cancer. Such a risk assessment model not only facilitates the development of an individually-tailored preventive strategy with treatment for H. pylori infection and endoscopic screening but also provides short-term and long-term indicators to evaluate the program effectiveness.",
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AU - Fann, Jean Ching Yuan

AU - Chiang, Tsung Hsien

AU - Yen, Amy Ming Fang

AU - Lee, Yi Chia

AU - Wu, Ming Shiang

AU - Chen, Hsiu Hsi

PY - 2018/11/19

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N2 - BACKGROUND: To develop an individually-tailored dynamic risk assessment model following a multistep, multifactorial process of the Correa's gastric cancer model. METHODS: First, we estimated the state-to-state transition rates following Correa's five-step carcinogenic model and assessed the effect of risk factors, including Helicobacter pylori infection, history of upper gastrointestinal disease, lifestyle, and dietary habits, on the step-by-step transition rates using data from a high-risk population in Matsu Islands, Taiwan. Second, we incorporated information on the gastric cancer carcinogenesis affected by genomic risk factors (including inherited susceptibility and irreversible genomic changes) based on literature to generate a genetic and epigenetic risk assessment model by using a simulated cohort identical to the Matsu population. The combination of conventional and genomic risk factors enables us to develop the personalized transition risk scores and composite scores. RESULTS: The state-by-state transition rates per year were 0.0053, 0.7523, 0.1750, and 0.0121 per year from normal mucosa to chronic active gastritis, chronic active gastritis to atrophic gastritis, atrophic gastritis to intestinal metaplasia, and intestinal metaplasia to gastric cancer, respectively. Compared with the median risk group, the most risky decile had a 5.22-fold risk of developing gastric cancer, and the least risky decile around one-twelfth of the risk. The median 10-year risk for gastric cancer incidence was 0.77%. The median lifetime risk for gastric cancer incidence was 5.43%. By decile, the 10-year risk ranged from 0.06 to 4.04% and the lifetime risk ranged from 0.42 to 21.04%. CONCLUSIONS: We demonstrate how to develop a personalized dynamic risk assessment model with the underpinning of Correa's cascade to stratify the population according to their risk for progression to gastric cancer. Such a risk assessment model not only facilitates the development of an individually-tailored preventive strategy with treatment for H. pylori infection and endoscopic screening but also provides short-term and long-term indicators to evaluate the program effectiveness.

AB - BACKGROUND: To develop an individually-tailored dynamic risk assessment model following a multistep, multifactorial process of the Correa's gastric cancer model. METHODS: First, we estimated the state-to-state transition rates following Correa's five-step carcinogenic model and assessed the effect of risk factors, including Helicobacter pylori infection, history of upper gastrointestinal disease, lifestyle, and dietary habits, on the step-by-step transition rates using data from a high-risk population in Matsu Islands, Taiwan. Second, we incorporated information on the gastric cancer carcinogenesis affected by genomic risk factors (including inherited susceptibility and irreversible genomic changes) based on literature to generate a genetic and epigenetic risk assessment model by using a simulated cohort identical to the Matsu population. The combination of conventional and genomic risk factors enables us to develop the personalized transition risk scores and composite scores. RESULTS: The state-by-state transition rates per year were 0.0053, 0.7523, 0.1750, and 0.0121 per year from normal mucosa to chronic active gastritis, chronic active gastritis to atrophic gastritis, atrophic gastritis to intestinal metaplasia, and intestinal metaplasia to gastric cancer, respectively. Compared with the median risk group, the most risky decile had a 5.22-fold risk of developing gastric cancer, and the least risky decile around one-twelfth of the risk. The median 10-year risk for gastric cancer incidence was 0.77%. The median lifetime risk for gastric cancer incidence was 5.43%. By decile, the 10-year risk ranged from 0.06 to 4.04% and the lifetime risk ranged from 0.42 to 21.04%. CONCLUSIONS: We demonstrate how to develop a personalized dynamic risk assessment model with the underpinning of Correa's cascade to stratify the population according to their risk for progression to gastric cancer. Such a risk assessment model not only facilitates the development of an individually-tailored preventive strategy with treatment for H. pylori infection and endoscopic screening but also provides short-term and long-term indicators to evaluate the program effectiveness.

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