Global, regional, and national levels of neonatal, infant, and under-5 mortality during 1990-2013: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

Haidong Wang, Chelsea A. Liddell, Matthew M. Coates, Meghan D. Mooney, Carly E. Levitz, Austin E. Schumacher, Henry Apfel, Marissa Iannarone, Bryan Phillips, Katherine T. Lofgren, Logan Sandar, Rob E. Dorrington, Ivo Rakovac, Troy A. Jacobs, Xiaofeng Liang, Maigeng Zhou, Jun Zhu, Gonghuan Yang, Yanping Wang, Shiwei LiuYichong Li, Ayse Abbasoglu Ozgoren, Semaw Ferede Abera, Ibrahim Abubakar, Tom Achoki, Ademola Adelekan, Zanfina Ademi, Zewdie Aderaw Alemu, Peter J. Allen, Mohammad Abdulaziz AlMazroa, Elena Alvarez, Adansi A. Amankwaa, Azmeraw T. Amare, Walid Ammar, Palwasha Anwari, Solveig Argeseanu Cunningham, Majed Masoud Asad, Reza Assadi, Amitava Banerjee, Sanjay Basu, Neeraj Bedi, Tolesa Bekele, Michelle L. Bell, Zulfiqar Bhutta, Jed D. Blore, Berrak Bora Basara, Soufiane Boufous, Nicholas Breitborde, Nigel G. Bruce, Linh Ngoc Bui, Jonathan R. Carapetis, Rosario Cárdenas, David O. Carpenter, Valeria Caso, Ruben Estanislao Castro, Ferrán Catalá-Lopéz, Alanur Cavlin, Xuan Che, Peggy Pei Chia Chiang, Rajiv Chowdhury, Costas A. Christophi, Ting Wu Chuang, Massimo Cirillo, Iuri Da Costa Leite, Karen J. Courville, Lalit Dandona, Rakhi Dandona, Adrian Davis, Anand Dayama, Kebede Deribe, Samath D. Dharmaratne, Mukesh K. Dherani, Uʇur Dilmen, Eric L. Ding, Karen M. Edmond, Sergei Petrovich Ermakov, Farshad Farzadfar, Seyed Mohammad Fereshtehnejad, Daniel Obadare Fijabi, Nataliya Foigt, Mohammad H. Forouzanfar, Ana C. Garcia, Johanna M. Geleijnse, Bradford D. Gessner, Ketevan Goginashvili, Philimon Gona, Atsushi Goto, Hebe N. Gouda, Mark A. Green, Karen Fern Greenwell, Harish Chander Gugnani, Rahul Gupta, Randah Ribhi Hamadeh, Mouhanad Hammami, Hilda L. Harb, Simon Hay, Mohammad T. Hedayati, H. Dean Hosgood, Damian G. Hoy, Bulat T. Idrisov, Farhad Islami, Samaya Ismayilova, Vivekanand Jha, Guohong Jiang, Jost B. Jonas, Knud Juel, Edmond Kato Kabagambe, Dhruv S. Kazi, Andre Pascal Kengne, Maia Kereselidze, Yousef Saleh Khader, Shams Eldin Ali Hassan Khalifa, Young Ho Khang, Daniel Kim, Yohannes Kinfu, Jonas M. Kinge, Yoshihiro Kokubo, Soewarta Kosen, Barthelemy Kuate Defo, G. Anil Kumar, Kaushalendra Kumar, Ravi B. Kumar, Taavi Lai, Qing Lan, Anders Larsson, Jong Tae Lee, Mall Leinsalu, Stephen S. Lim, Steven E. Lipshultz, Giancarlo Logroscino, Paulo A. Lotufo, Raimundas Lunevicius, Ronan Anthony Lyons, Stefan Ma, Abbas Ali Mahdi, Melvin Barrientos Marzan, Mohammad Taufiq Mashal, Tasara T. Mazorodze, John J. McGrath, Ziad A. Memish, Walter Mendoza, George A. Mensah, Atte Meretoja, Ted R. Miller, Edward J. Mills, Karzan Abdulmuhsin Mohammad, Ali H. Mokdad, Lorenzo Monasta, Marcella Montico, Ami R. Moore, Joanna Moschandreas, William T. Msemburi, Ulrich O. Mueller, Magdalena M. Muszynska, Mohsen Naghavi, Kovin S. Naidoo, K. M Venkat Narayan, Chakib Nejjari, Marie Ng, Jean De Dieu Ngirabega, Mark J. Nieuwenhuijsen, Luke Nyakarahuka, Takayoshi Ohkubo, Saad B. Omer, Angel J. Paternina Caicedo, Victoria Pillay-Van Wyk, Dan Pope, Farshad Pourmalek, Dorairaj Prabhakaran, Sajjad U R Rahman, Saleem M. Rana, Robert Quentin Reilly, David Rojas-Rueda, Luca Ronfani, Lesley Rushton, Mohammad Yahya Saeedi, Joshua A. Salomon, Uchechukwu Sampson, Itamar S. Santos, Monika Sawhney, Jürgen C. Schmidt, Marina Shakh-Nazarova, Jun She, Sara Sheikhbahaei, Kenji Shibuya, Hwashin Hyun Shin, Kawkab Shishani, Ivy Shiue, Inga Dora Sigfusdottir, Jasvinder A. Singh, Vegard Skirbekk, Karen Sliwa, Sergey S. Soshnikov, Luciano A. Sposato, Vasiliki Kalliopi Stathopoulou, Konstantinos Stroumpoulis, Karen M. Tabb, Roberto Tchio Talongwa, Carolina Maria Teixeira, Abdullah Sulieman Terkawi, Alan J. Thomson, Andrew L. Thorne-Lyman, Hideaki Toyoshima, Zacharie Tsala Dimbuene, Parfait Uwaliraye, Selen Begüm Uzun, Tommi J. Vasankari, Ana Maria Nogales Vasconcelos, Vasiliy Victorovich Vlassov, Stein Emil Vollset, Stephen Waller, Xia Wan, Scott Weichenthal, Elisabete Weiderpass, Robert G. Weintraub, Ronny Westerman, James D. Wilkinson, Hywel C. Williams, Yang C. Yang, Gokalp Kadri Yentur, Paul Yip, Naohiro Yonemoto, Mustafa Younis, Chuanhua Yu, Kim Yun Jin, Maysaa El Sayed Zaki, Shankuan Zhu, Theo Vos, Alan D. Lopez, Christopher J L Murray

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Abstract

Background: Remarkable financial and political efforts have been focused on the reduction of child mortality during the past few decades. Timely measurements of levels and trends in under-5 mortality are important to assess progress towards the Millennium Development Goal 4 (MDG 4) target of reduction of child mortality by two thirds from 1990 to 2015, and to identify models of success. Methods: We generated updated estimates of child mortality in early neonatal (age 0-6 days), late neonatal (7-28 days), postneonatal (29-364 days), childhood (1-4 years), and under-5 (0-4 years) age groups for 188 countries from 1970 to 2013, with more than 29 000 survey, census, vital registration, and sample registration datapoints. We used Gaussian process regression with adjustments for bias and non-sampling error to synthesise the data for under-5 mortality for each country, and a separate model to estimate mortality for more detailed age groups. We used explanatory mixed effects regression models to assess the association between under-5 mortality and income per person, maternal education, HIV child death rates, secular shifts, and other factors. To quantify the contribution of these different factors and birth numbers to the change in numbers of deaths in under-5 age groups from 1990 to 2013, we used Shapley decomposition. We used estimated rates of change between 2000 and 2013 to construct under-5 mortality rate scenarios out to 2030. Findings: We estimated that 6·3 million (95% UI 6·0-6·6) children under-5 died in 2013, a 64% reduction from 17·6 million (17·1-18·1) in 1970. In 2013, child mortality rates ranged from 152·5 per 1000 livebirths (130·6-177·4) in Guinea-Bissau to 2·3 (1·8-2·9) per 1000 in Singapore. The annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2013 ranged from -6·8% to 0·1%. 99 of 188 countries, including 43 of 48 countries in sub-Saharan Africa, had faster decreases in child mortality during 2000-13 than during 1990-2000. In 2013, neonatal deaths accounted for 41·6% of under-5 deaths compared with 37·4% in 1990. Compared with 1990, in 2013, rising numbers of births, especially in sub-Saharan Africa, led to 1·4 million more child deaths, and rising income per person and maternal education led to 0·9 million and 2·2 million fewer deaths, respectively. Changes in secular trends led to 4·2 million fewer deaths. Unexplained factors accounted for only -1% of the change in child deaths. In 30 developing countries, decreases since 2000 have been faster than predicted attributable to income, education, and secular shift alone. Interpretation: Only 27 developing countries are expected to achieve MDG 4. Decreases since 2000 in under-5 mortality rates are accelerating in many developing countries, especially in sub-Saharan Africa. The Millennium Declaration and increased development assistance for health might have been a factor in faster decreases in some developing countries. Without further accelerated progress, many countries in west and central Africa will still have high levels of under-5 mortality in 2030. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, US Agency for International Development.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)957-979
Number of pages23
JournalThe Lancet
Volume384
Issue number9947
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2014

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ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Medicine(all)

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Wang, H., Liddell, C. A., Coates, M. M., Mooney, M. D., Levitz, C. E., Schumacher, A. E., Apfel, H., Iannarone, M., Phillips, B., Lofgren, K. T., Sandar, L., Dorrington, R. E., Rakovac, I., Jacobs, T. A., Liang, X., Zhou, M., Zhu, J., Yang, G., Wang, Y., ... Murray, C. J. L. (2014). Global, regional, and national levels of neonatal, infant, and under-5 mortality during 1990-2013: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013. The Lancet, 384(9947), 957-979. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(14)60497-9