Assessment of climate-driven variations in malaria incidence in Swaziland

toward malaria elimination

Ting Wu Chuang, Adam Soble, Nyasatu Ntshalintshali, Nomcebo Mkhonta, Eric Seyama, Steven Mthethwa, Deepa Pindolia, Simon Kunene

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

3 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Background: Swaziland aims to eliminate malaria by 2020. However, imported cases from neighbouring endemic countries continue to sustain local parasite reservoirs and initiate transmission. As certain weather and climatic conditions may trigger or intensify malaria outbreaks, identification of areas prone to these conditions may aid decision-makers in deploying targeted malaria interventions more effectively. Methods: Malaria case-surveillance data for Swaziland were provided by Swaziland’s National Malaria Control Programme. Climate data were derived from local weather stations and remote sensing images. Climate parameters and malaria cases between 2001 and 2015 were then analysed using seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average models and distributed lag non-linear models (DLNM). Results: The incidence of malaria in Swaziland increased between 2005 and 2010, especially in the Lubombo and Hhohho regions. A time-series analysis indicated that warmer temperatures and higher precipitation in the Lubombo and Hhohho administrative regions are conducive to malaria transmission. DLNM showed that the risk of malaria increased in Lubombo when the maximum temperature was above 30 °C or monthly precipitation was above 5 in. In Hhohho, the minimum temperature remaining above 15 °C or precipitation being greater than 10 in. might be associated with malaria transmission. Conclusions: This study provides a preliminary assessment of the impact of short-term climate variations on malaria transmission in Swaziland. The geographic separation of imported and locally acquired malaria, as well as population behaviour, highlight the varying modes of transmission, part of which may be relevant to climate conditions. Thus, the impact of changing climate conditions should be noted as Swaziland moves toward malaria elimination.

Original languageEnglish
Article number232
JournalMalaria Journal
Volume16
Issue number1
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Jun 1 2017

Fingerprint

Swaziland
Climate
Malaria
Incidence
Nonlinear Dynamics
Weather
Temperature
Decision Support Techniques

Keywords

  • Climate variations
  • Malaria elimination
  • Swaziland

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Parasitology
  • Infectious Diseases

Cite this

Assessment of climate-driven variations in malaria incidence in Swaziland : toward malaria elimination. / Chuang, Ting Wu; Soble, Adam; Ntshalintshali, Nyasatu; Mkhonta, Nomcebo; Seyama, Eric; Mthethwa, Steven; Pindolia, Deepa; Kunene, Simon.

In: Malaria Journal, Vol. 16, No. 1, 232, 01.06.2017.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Chuang, TW, Soble, A, Ntshalintshali, N, Mkhonta, N, Seyama, E, Mthethwa, S, Pindolia, D & Kunene, S 2017, 'Assessment of climate-driven variations in malaria incidence in Swaziland: toward malaria elimination', Malaria Journal, vol. 16, no. 1, 232. https://doi.org/10.1186/s12936-017-1874-0
Chuang, Ting Wu ; Soble, Adam ; Ntshalintshali, Nyasatu ; Mkhonta, Nomcebo ; Seyama, Eric ; Mthethwa, Steven ; Pindolia, Deepa ; Kunene, Simon. / Assessment of climate-driven variations in malaria incidence in Swaziland : toward malaria elimination. In: Malaria Journal. 2017 ; Vol. 16, No. 1.
@article{dec828bb0a1b49a598512a9843ae386b,
title = "Assessment of climate-driven variations in malaria incidence in Swaziland: toward malaria elimination",
abstract = "Background: Swaziland aims to eliminate malaria by 2020. However, imported cases from neighbouring endemic countries continue to sustain local parasite reservoirs and initiate transmission. As certain weather and climatic conditions may trigger or intensify malaria outbreaks, identification of areas prone to these conditions may aid decision-makers in deploying targeted malaria interventions more effectively. Methods: Malaria case-surveillance data for Swaziland were provided by Swaziland’s National Malaria Control Programme. Climate data were derived from local weather stations and remote sensing images. Climate parameters and malaria cases between 2001 and 2015 were then analysed using seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average models and distributed lag non-linear models (DLNM). Results: The incidence of malaria in Swaziland increased between 2005 and 2010, especially in the Lubombo and Hhohho regions. A time-series analysis indicated that warmer temperatures and higher precipitation in the Lubombo and Hhohho administrative regions are conducive to malaria transmission. DLNM showed that the risk of malaria increased in Lubombo when the maximum temperature was above 30 °C or monthly precipitation was above 5 in. In Hhohho, the minimum temperature remaining above 15 °C or precipitation being greater than 10 in. might be associated with malaria transmission. Conclusions: This study provides a preliminary assessment of the impact of short-term climate variations on malaria transmission in Swaziland. The geographic separation of imported and locally acquired malaria, as well as population behaviour, highlight the varying modes of transmission, part of which may be relevant to climate conditions. Thus, the impact of changing climate conditions should be noted as Swaziland moves toward malaria elimination.",
keywords = "Climate variations, Malaria elimination, Swaziland",
author = "Chuang, {Ting Wu} and Adam Soble and Nyasatu Ntshalintshali and Nomcebo Mkhonta and Eric Seyama and Steven Mthethwa and Deepa Pindolia and Simon Kunene",
year = "2017",
month = "6",
day = "1",
doi = "10.1186/s12936-017-1874-0",
language = "English",
volume = "16",
journal = "Malaria Journal",
issn = "1475-2875",
publisher = "BioMed Central",
number = "1",

}

TY - JOUR

T1 - Assessment of climate-driven variations in malaria incidence in Swaziland

T2 - toward malaria elimination

AU - Chuang, Ting Wu

AU - Soble, Adam

AU - Ntshalintshali, Nyasatu

AU - Mkhonta, Nomcebo

AU - Seyama, Eric

AU - Mthethwa, Steven

AU - Pindolia, Deepa

AU - Kunene, Simon

PY - 2017/6/1

Y1 - 2017/6/1

N2 - Background: Swaziland aims to eliminate malaria by 2020. However, imported cases from neighbouring endemic countries continue to sustain local parasite reservoirs and initiate transmission. As certain weather and climatic conditions may trigger or intensify malaria outbreaks, identification of areas prone to these conditions may aid decision-makers in deploying targeted malaria interventions more effectively. Methods: Malaria case-surveillance data for Swaziland were provided by Swaziland’s National Malaria Control Programme. Climate data were derived from local weather stations and remote sensing images. Climate parameters and malaria cases between 2001 and 2015 were then analysed using seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average models and distributed lag non-linear models (DLNM). Results: The incidence of malaria in Swaziland increased between 2005 and 2010, especially in the Lubombo and Hhohho regions. A time-series analysis indicated that warmer temperatures and higher precipitation in the Lubombo and Hhohho administrative regions are conducive to malaria transmission. DLNM showed that the risk of malaria increased in Lubombo when the maximum temperature was above 30 °C or monthly precipitation was above 5 in. In Hhohho, the minimum temperature remaining above 15 °C or precipitation being greater than 10 in. might be associated with malaria transmission. Conclusions: This study provides a preliminary assessment of the impact of short-term climate variations on malaria transmission in Swaziland. The geographic separation of imported and locally acquired malaria, as well as population behaviour, highlight the varying modes of transmission, part of which may be relevant to climate conditions. Thus, the impact of changing climate conditions should be noted as Swaziland moves toward malaria elimination.

AB - Background: Swaziland aims to eliminate malaria by 2020. However, imported cases from neighbouring endemic countries continue to sustain local parasite reservoirs and initiate transmission. As certain weather and climatic conditions may trigger or intensify malaria outbreaks, identification of areas prone to these conditions may aid decision-makers in deploying targeted malaria interventions more effectively. Methods: Malaria case-surveillance data for Swaziland were provided by Swaziland’s National Malaria Control Programme. Climate data were derived from local weather stations and remote sensing images. Climate parameters and malaria cases between 2001 and 2015 were then analysed using seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average models and distributed lag non-linear models (DLNM). Results: The incidence of malaria in Swaziland increased between 2005 and 2010, especially in the Lubombo and Hhohho regions. A time-series analysis indicated that warmer temperatures and higher precipitation in the Lubombo and Hhohho administrative regions are conducive to malaria transmission. DLNM showed that the risk of malaria increased in Lubombo when the maximum temperature was above 30 °C or monthly precipitation was above 5 in. In Hhohho, the minimum temperature remaining above 15 °C or precipitation being greater than 10 in. might be associated with malaria transmission. Conclusions: This study provides a preliminary assessment of the impact of short-term climate variations on malaria transmission in Swaziland. The geographic separation of imported and locally acquired malaria, as well as population behaviour, highlight the varying modes of transmission, part of which may be relevant to climate conditions. Thus, the impact of changing climate conditions should be noted as Swaziland moves toward malaria elimination.

KW - Climate variations

KW - Malaria elimination

KW - Swaziland

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85019998667&partnerID=8YFLogxK

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=85019998667&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1186/s12936-017-1874-0

DO - 10.1186/s12936-017-1874-0

M3 - Article

VL - 16

JO - Malaria Journal

JF - Malaria Journal

SN - 1475-2875

IS - 1

M1 - 232

ER -