A prediction model for periodontal disease

Modelling and validation from a National Survey of 4061 Taiwanese adults

Hongmin Lai, Chiu Wen Su, Amy Ming Fang Yen, Sherry Yueh Hsia Chiu, Jean Ching Yuan Fann, Wendy Yi Ying Wu, Shu Lin Chuang, Hsing Chih Liu, Hsiu Hsi Chen, Li Sheng Chen

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

12 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Aims The aim of this study was to predict periodontal disease (PD) with demographical features, oral health behaviour, and clinical correlates based on a national survey of periodontal disease in Taiwan. Materials and Methods A total of 4061 subjects who were enrolled in a cross-sectional nationwide survey on periodontal conditions of residents aged 18 years or older in Taiwan between 2007 and 2008 were included. The community periodontal index (CPI) was used to measure the periodontal status at the subject and sextant levels. Information on demographical features and other relevant predictive factors for PD was collected using a questionnaire. Results In our study population, 56.2% of subjects had CPI grades ≥3. Periodontitis, as defined by CPI ≥3, was best predicted by a model including age, gender, education, brushing frequency, mobile teeth, gingival bleeding, smoking, and BMI. The area under the curve (AUC) for the final prediction model was 0.712 (0.690-0.734). The AUC was 0.702 (0.665-0.740) according to cross-validation. Conclusions A prediction model for PD using information obtained from questionnaires was developed. The feasibility of its application to risk stratification of PD should be considered with regard to community-based screening for asymptomatic PD.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)413-421
Number of pages9
JournalJournal of Clinical Periodontology
Volume42
Issue number5
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - May 1 2015

Fingerprint

Periodontal Diseases
Periodontal Index
Taiwan
Area Under Curve
Asymptomatic Diseases
Periodontitis
Health Behavior
Oral Health
Surveys and Questionnaires
Tooth
Cross-Sectional Studies
Smoking
Hemorrhage
Education
Population

Keywords

  • Community Periodontal Index
  • periodontal disease
  • prediction
  • ROC curve

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Periodontics

Cite this

A prediction model for periodontal disease : Modelling and validation from a National Survey of 4061 Taiwanese adults. / Lai, Hongmin; Su, Chiu Wen; Yen, Amy Ming Fang; Chiu, Sherry Yueh Hsia; Fann, Jean Ching Yuan; Wu, Wendy Yi Ying; Chuang, Shu Lin; Liu, Hsing Chih; Chen, Hsiu Hsi; Chen, Li Sheng.

In: Journal of Clinical Periodontology, Vol. 42, No. 5, 01.05.2015, p. 413-421.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Lai, Hongmin ; Su, Chiu Wen ; Yen, Amy Ming Fang ; Chiu, Sherry Yueh Hsia ; Fann, Jean Ching Yuan ; Wu, Wendy Yi Ying ; Chuang, Shu Lin ; Liu, Hsing Chih ; Chen, Hsiu Hsi ; Chen, Li Sheng. / A prediction model for periodontal disease : Modelling and validation from a National Survey of 4061 Taiwanese adults. In: Journal of Clinical Periodontology. 2015 ; Vol. 42, No. 5. pp. 413-421.
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