Periodontal disease continues to be a significant health problem and is one of the major causes of tooth loss in adults in Taiwan and throughout the world. The risk factors in association with periodontal disease include genetic and environmental factors. The drawback is that the previous association studies are all classified as two-state models rather than multi-state models which can delineate multi-state disease progression in related to genetic and environmental factors. In the present proposal, we would like to construct the stochastic Markov model to quantify the disease progression rates within different disease states. Genetic, epigenetic, microbiotas, and personal attributes obtained from literature are incorporated into model to assess their influences on disease progression. Personalized preventive strategies for periodontal disease can further be formulated. The application of personalized preventive medicine for periodontal disease based on multistate risk assessment model at individual level is hardly addressed. In this project, we would like to develop a specific mobile application by personalized periodontal disease predictive model to show how to provide a friendly application to benefit people. Through multistate risk assessment model, we apply the parameters estimated from both empirical data and simulated dataset to build up individualized prevention policy on which we are based to do economic appraisal between individualized and population-based prevention strategy. Accordingly, we proposed a two-year project. The objectives are stated below: Year 1 (Aug 2017 to July, 2018) (1) To do the systematical review for literatures regarding risk factor on periodontal disease. (2) To identify the risk factors responsible for periodontal disease or progression and construct a Markov model to depict periodontal disease nature history. (3) To build multistate risk predictive model for periodontal disease.Year 2 (Aug 2019 to July, 2020) (1) To build-up APP based on personalized periodontal disease prevention. (2) To perform the cost-effective analysis on the hypothetical cohort which is randomized into different scenarios: individualized prevention strategy, population-based prevention strategy, and pass care.
|Effective start/end date||8/1/17 → 7/31/18|
- Periodontal Disease
- Multi-state Progress
- Predictive Model
- Cost-effective analysis